FARBES

The current state of the art in relativistic electron radiation belt models for operational needs come in two flavours – a “nowcast” based on data assimilation of relevant and timely measurements (such as used in meteorology or oceanography) into a physics based model, and limited “forecasts'' based on statistical forecasts of indices or solar wind parameters that govern the dynamics in physical models.The FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios) project limits its ambition to simple, achievable prediction goals that are of utility to satellite operators while avoiding the pitfalls of past projects. We hold that while it may be impossible to accurately predict the outbreak of a space weather event, once an event has started we have the tools to predict subsequent behavior and to update our predictions during the event. While we may not be able to globally predict in detail the subsequent dynamic behavior, we can provide actionable forecasts for satellite operators on a few key event characteristics:

• Time to most severe environment
• Most severe flux reached
• Time to the end of the event.

We overcome the data-assimilation nowcast limitations by using physics-based models driven by simple, affordable and reliable ground-based real-time inputs only, we overcome our inability to accurately forecast magnetospheric drivers by using a scenario-driven forecast approach for radiation belt dynamics starting with nowcast and is constantly refined during an event by the ongoing availability of real-time model inputs.

Project

FARBES (Forecast of Actionable Radiation Belt Scenarios) is a scientific research project funded by the European Union in the Horizon Europe programme under the project No. 101081772. FARBES aims at provision of actionable information on future high-energy electron (“killer electron”) environments for spacecraft operators, based on easily sustainable ground-based drivers and measurements with the most-likely scenario based forecast of the radiation belt dynamics. To achieve this, we will implement a series of key innovations and advances compared to previous efforts in radiation belt prediction:

• We start with an accurate initial state specification of both environment and drivers using readily available real-time innovative ground-based input parameters, driving state-of-the-art diffusive radiation belt models to “now”.
  
  
• We then base our forecast methodology on scenario-based predictions of subsequent behaviour of a few key quantities of interest to spacecraft operators (listed above).
  
  
• We finally recursively evolve the predictions as the event unfolds using up-to-date initial conditions and drivers to update our scenario-based predictions.

WP1

Objectives

• Developing the specification of the in-situ natural wave environment based on ground based VLF wave data
• Derivation of wave power of whistler mode VLF chorus and hiss occurring in the radiation belt using ground
• based VLF observational data
• Validation of the derived wave parameters by in-situ VLF wave measurements

Deliverables

• D1.1 – Calculated in-situ VLF wave power for selected events
• D1.2 – Validated VLF wave power
• D1.3 – Prediction model for VLF wave power

WP2

Objectives

• Extend existing methods to derive drift averaged radial diffusion coefficients DLL-E from ground based ULF data for use with ground-array data which is available in near-real time.
• Estimate MLT impacts in deriving drift averaged radial diffusion coefficients using the revised method.

Deliverables

• D2.1 – New algorithm for combining MLT separated ULF wave power data into a drift orbit averaged radial diffusion coefficient
• D2.2 – New empirical parameterizations of ULF wave power and hence for DLL
• D2.3 – Impacts on radiation belt dynamics in Salammbo runs from WP3 and/or WP4 resulting from using new diffusion coefficients for sample storms

WP3

Objectives
Prepare the radiation belt model Salammbô to allow forecasting using the ground based drivers developed in WP1 and WP2 and define relevant scenarios for different radiation belts disturbances:

• Upgrading the radiation belt model Salammbô to use ground based drivers defined in WP1 and WP2
• Preparing the initial state for the forecast
• Scenario definition of active time in the radiation belts
• Updating reference forecast based on latest drivers

Deliverables

• D3.1 – Salammbo updates to use new boundary conditions and drivers
• D3.2 – Enhanced Salammbô model outer boundary and lower energy boundary models
• D3.3 – New optimised initial state
• D3.4 – Scenario definitions
• D3.5 – Updating scenario forecasts during evente

WP4

Objectives

• The objective of this work package is to validate the output of the radiation belt forecasts by comparing model results with in-situ post-event data collected during active scenario periods, as identified in WP3. For this purpose the definition of a specific metric will be conducted in the work package as well as the analysis of the reliability of our approach in the case of extreme events.

Deliverables

• D4.1 – Validated new metric specific tool to analyse the full forecasting procedure
• D4.2 – Validated new index of intensity of an ongoing event and risk of becoming an extreme one
• D4.3 – Validated Salammbô model
• D4.4 – Validated models by comparison with AARDDVARK/POES determined electron precipitation fluxes.
• D4.5 – Release the database of input and output scenarios

WP5

Objectives
The objective of this WP is to provide the maximum diffusion of the relevant results achieved in the project and the preparation of an exploitation plan. To this purpose, the following activities will be carried out:

• Publication of the project results and achievement in scientific journals and conferences.
• Publication of popular papers in national and international newspapers and magazines, appearances in audiovisual media.
• Setting up the FARBES website, which will be continuously updated.
• Definition of the exploitation plan of the project
• Organisation of dedicated workshops to present the results of the project to target audience

Deliverables

• 5.1 – Project website set-up, then used and updated throughout the project
• D5.2 – Data Management Plan

WP6

Objectives

• This work package aims at implementing a Project management adapted to the specific requirement of the FARBES project and to animate the Consortium. To ensure efficient project management, the consortium will rely on ELTE and its staff that will be in charge of the operational day-to-day management allowing the partners to focus on the technical tasks. ELTE will be aided by ONERA, UKRI-BAS (Project Management Committee, PMC) and a Program Management Office (PMO) will be established at ELTE.

Deliverables

• D6.1 – Quality assurance plan
• D6.2 – Interim 2nd-year report

Partners

ELTE

Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary

The coordinator (ELTE) leads the unique, global AWDANet ground based VLF receiver network enhanced in PLASMON EU FP7-Space project The WP1 tasks are based on the data collected by the AWDANet receivers. It also produced several passive VLF wave experiments (SAS instruments) successfully flew/flies on Active, Compass-2, Chibis-M and Relek satellites as well as on the ISS. This group is also active in theoretical and modelling studies for wave propagation in magneto-ionic media. It also coordinates the EMMA magnetometer array and has long experience in ULF wave research, and especially in the analysis of ground based and space magnetometer data. ELTE participates and is the Co-I in a European consortium that established a ground based plasmasphere mass density monitoring network during the course of the PLASMON FP7 project. This monitoring network could yield ULF data and derived products like D_LL , plasma mass density. ELTE in collaboration with GFZ (Potsdam, Germany) developed a new technique to obtain plasmapause positions from LEO magnetometer data. This PP proxy could be also useful for the current project.

Main tasks

ELTE will coordinate the FARBES project and therefore lead WP6 (Management of the consortium). ELTE will also lead WP1 (Specification of in-situ natural wave environment based on ground based VLF data), and contribute to all other work packages.